Dual momentum: real portfolios and current status

Dual momentum with Value and Momentum factor portfolios was tested back to 1950 with 16% annual returns:

Dual1

What is the tracking error of real ETFs to those portfolios?

pdp-vbr

Vanguard Small-Value (VBR) launched in 2004 and can underperform Value near market peaks but overall the 10 year return is identical.

Dorsey Wright Technical Leaders (PDP) tracks similarly to Momentum although returns lag slightly.  Note that the selection methodology is different (uses P&F not price measures) and there is an annual expense ratio of 0.6%.

The plot below shows relative 12 month momentum (Value minus Momentum).  Using this criterion, the strategy would have been invested in Momentum since June 2014 (blue line below zero).  The strategy switches are shown in red.

Momentum is currently outperforming Value more than 10% per annum therefore a large and sustained change in relative performance is needed for a switch to Value.

v-m

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