Update: 2 Feb, triggered on 30 Jan (Thursday).
Update: 29 Jan, no up-bar on $NAMO yet:
$NAMO hit -41.67 at the close. 20 point reversals from below -50 tend to signal lows:
The interaction between value and PEAD is discussed in a paper by Yan and Zhao. PEAD is one of the most researched anomalies in the last 4 decades since its discovery by Ball and Brown. Value stocks outperform following positive earnings and positive market reaction to earnings (EAR):
Excess returns are almost 3% a quarter, since 1984, in addition to the segment return (i.e. total return of 8% per quarter or 36% annually!). This paper does not control for magnitude of earnings surprise. However, Chordia and Shivakumar show that returns increase with SUE (standardized unexpected earnings):
Therefore there may be opportunity to further improve on Yan and Zhao’s results by sorting on SUE.
Robert Novy-Marx finds that momentum is driven by price change in the first half of the preceding year, irrespective of recent performance. Most studies use the whole year price change, excluding the most recent month.
To investigate this result, I revisited my previous analysis of S&P small cap stocks since 2008 which showed that annual gains of about 25% led to an average 10% gain next quarter:*
* These data are out of sample relative to the Novy-Marx paper.
The correlation between next quarter return and return in the first half of the preceding year is much closer (r^2 increases from 0.66 to 0.84):
Investigation is needed on whether any characteristics of recent performance can segment returns even further. Value and earnings surprise would be logical starting points.